Unknown Lands Await: What Columbus Teaches Us About Charting AI Progress
Examining Christopher Columbus's journey from dismissed to pioneering explorer, this article extracts insights for today's AI innovators seeking to overcome skepticism of unconventional ideas.
I was visiting Spain over the Thanksgiving break and found myself pondering the ocean of history encompassing places like Cordoba and Granada. As I passed relics of ages long gone, I couldn’t help but muse on the driven dreamers and daring risk-takers who seemed as prevalent in eras of old as today. Visionaries who upended expectations and changed the world often started with little more than big aspirations and a knack for persuading others to buy into their ambitions, no matter how far-fetched they seemed.
Act I: The Ambitious Pitch and Rejection
In 1485, an ambitious Italian entrepreneur named Christopher Columbus pitched a bold plan to disrupt the lucrative Asia trade routes. Rather than follow the typical southerly course rounding Africa, Columbus proposed reaching the Indies by the uncharted western sea route.
Through careful calculations, Columbus concluded he could validate his faster route by sailing west for just 2,400 nautical miles with three ships stocked for a year. What Columbus required was funding to test his unconventional hypothesis.
He found willing capital partners among Italian traders, but they wanted him to get a lead investor. Columbus thus turned to King John II of Portugal, who had already funded expeditions like Vasco de Gama’s successful voyage around Africa to India.
Columbus made an audacious opening pitch, not only requesting ships and supplies but also demanding lofty titles and significant profit sharing. Intrigued but skeptical, King John II pursued the deal. However, the technical due diligence team balked at his estimate of the distance. They believed the Earth was much bigger and that the voyage would take more time and money.
The records of the rejection aren't easily available, but I'm sure it went along the lines of :
"We're unfortunately going to have to sit this one out. We love the team and the market is big, but we just couldn't get there with the route you've chosen. We're often wrong and know that we'll have to pay up at a higher valuation for your next voyage."
Act II: Persistent Appeals and Continued Rejections
Rebuffed by Portugal, Columbus pressed onward seeking other backers, but appeals to financiers in Genoa and Venice were dismissed outright. After appeals to Italian bankers fell flat, Columbus drained his rolodex tapping his younger brother Bartholomew to make overtures to England’s Henry VII. That overture failed as well.
By 1486, Columbus presented his case to the Spanish monarchs Isabella and Ferdinand, newly joined in marriage. Though intrigued, Isabella deferred to technical advisors who also insisted Columbus hugely miscalculated the voyage’s distance, dooming his plans.
However, Columbus made an impression on the regents. Unfortunately, with resources devoted to defeating the Moors in Granada, no funds remained for exploration gambles.
Still, hoping to utilize Columbus’ grit someday, they offered quarters and a small stipend, essentially installing this unconventional visionary entrepreneur-in-residence until the more pressing Moor campaign concluded. The arrangement granted Columbus food, shelter, and a sanctioned space to incubate his ideas close to the Spanish crown.
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Act III: Eventual Deal Struck
By 1492, Ferdinand and Isabella shifted attention from their completed Moor campaign to evaluating more speculative investment opportunities with the freed-up Spanish crown capital.
Columbus pleaded his case once more after years of waiting in the wings. The monarchs deliberated but split on the proposal, like clashing VC partners in an investment committee meeting. Isabella moved to dismiss Columbus’ idea, heeding advisor warnings. However, Ferdinand pounded the table passionately, refusing to discard Columbus’ singular drive.
In a dramatic turn, Ferdinand brought his investment partner around. Thus, Columbus raised his funding round and the rest is, quite literally, history.
Lessons from the Sea
As I reflect on Columbus’ roundabout 1492 journey, 3 insights stand out that remain relevant for today’s AI innovators:
Maps Limit Discovery
Maps can only depict what is currently known, bounding exploration of the unknown. Columbus set sail armed only with limited 15th-century maps that outlined the known world. By persisting beyond their familiar contours into uncharted space, he stumbled upon the unexpected Americas.
Similarly, today's AGI debates center on backward-looking assumptions — our scientific "maps" of intelligence concepts remain woefully incomplete. It's a waste of time to debate intelligence when perhaps there are new forms of intelligence yet to be discovered.
Use a Compass
Columbus’ true compass wasn’t his calculations but convictions. He fixated westward based on Marco Polo’s chronicled lands he felt sure awaited across the seas. More than flawless planning, he read the signs before him to perpetually refine course. Breakthroughs emerge similarly - not by modeling rigid plans but by perpetually learning from experience. Getting lost led Columbus to world-upending discoveries.
Crazy Beats Right
In the end, Columbus was laughably wrong in his distance calculations to Asia, just as all the technical experts had insistently warned. His underestimations were vast - miscalculating by some 8,000 miles—enough to comprise entire continents. Yet his ultimate vindication was utterly unintended and wholly unpredictable. The meticulous technical analysis correctly dismissed his plans as misguided yet failed to account for the possibility of stumbling upon entirely new lands in the process
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