Peacocks, Runaway Selection, and the AI Race: Adapting to Survive and Thrive
Exploring the parallels between evolution and the competitive pressures driving AI adoption in business, and what it means for companies striving to stay ahead.
Nestled in the heart of West Austin, just a stone's throw from where I live, lies a charming little park by the lake. Mayfield Park is a true gem, but what sets it apart is its resident ostentation of peafowl (yes, I looked up the collective noun for peacocks). As you bike by the park, it's impossible not to do a double-take when you spot these regal birds casually strutting about.
When I say peacocks, I'm referring specifically to the males of the species. Compared to their resplendent partners, the peahens are quite drab and forgettable. This stark contrast between the sexes is not uncommon in the bird and animal kingdom. Take, for example, the dazzling colors of the male mallard duck compared to the mottled brown of the female, or the magnificent mane of the male lion versus the unadorned coat of the lioness.
According to the theory of evolution, these differences can be explained by selection pressures. The female must choose a partner who is healthy and can help her produce superior offspring. The peacock's incredible tail serves as a living curriculum vitae, showcasing his genetic and current physical fitness. It seems to declare, "Check this out! I have enough resources not just to stay alive but to maintain this incredible tail."
But why would nature, which is notoriously parsimonious, allow for such an extravagant display? The theory of runaway selection suggests that sometimes fitness can be attributed to a related trait, causing it to take off exponentially.
So, what does the runaway selection of peacock tails have to do with our discussion of AI and the economy? As it turns out, a similar dynamic occurs in the marketplace. Able-bodied vendors stand tall, flexing their provenance (funding from elite venture capital firms) and current financial success (over-the-top marketing events), much like the peacock's tail.
In this article, we'll explore how the arms race between competitors in the highly selective marketplace, particularly in the context of AI adoption, threatens to quickly consume any productivity gains, leaving us right back where we started. Just as peacocks must continually evolve more impressive tails to stand out and attract mates, companies must constantly innovate and differentiate themselves to stay ahead of the competition. By drawing parallels between the forces of nature and the dynamics of the tech industry, we can gain insights into the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
The Evolution of Apple's Website: A Lesson in Runaway Competition
In the early days of the web, websites were primarily about distributing information. Companies could share information without the need for physical catalogs and documents. If you wanted to learn about the latest changes to a product's specifications, you could simply visit the website.
It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the web was solely about efficiency. Once information could be distributed online, it might seem like the job was done. Screenshots of Dell and Apple websites from that era exemplify this mindset, showcasing websites that provide easy access to technical information and little else.
However, there is another game at play—a status game where brands strive to stand out. Apple, in particular, has consistently pushed the boundaries of what is possible with a website, going far beyond the basics of information distribution.
Take, for example, the AirPods Pro site from 2020. It would have been simple enough to create a standard website with a hero image of the AirPods Pro. Instead, Apple went above and beyond, incorporating custom animations and loading numerous high-quality images to produce stunning scroll effects.
There is no doubt that Apple invested serious web developer talent for a mere 5-second experience on the website. The fact that the website is no longer even available raises the question: why invest so much effort in a short-lived marketing launch?
The answer is simple: to stand out. As tools continue to improve the quality of what is considered "basic," there is increasing selection pressure on marketing to differentiate. If everyone has access to Canva and its templates, and the overall quality of marketing materials is improving, how else can a brand distinguish itself?
Apple's innovative website design raises the bar, and web developers eagerly follow suit. After each Apple event, there is a flurry of videos, blogs, and tutorials on recreating the effects used on the Apple website. For instance, there are numerous tutorials on replicating the AirPods Pro animation.
As time passes, templates and libraries emerge, enabling others to create similar animations. Eventually, all websites incorporate some of this magic, further increasing the pressure on vanguard brands to continue pushing boundaries and stand out.
Much like the competitive pressures between male peacocks caused their tails to evolve to be shinier, brighter, and more radiant, websites play the role of the peacock's tail, signaling to potential customers, "We're so successful that we can spend $50,000 on developing a 5-second experience."
Proof of Work and the Pressure to Stand Out
In the world of marketing, the pressure to stand out is not limited to websites alone. All marketing products, from trade show booths to printed materials, face the same challenge. However, this pressure extends far beyond the realm of marketing. If your competitors' products are gaining features faster because their developers are using AI to work more efficiently, the same pressure will apply to your engineering team as well. Every advantage is quickly consumed by competition until the playing field is level once again.
This phenomenon can be understood through the lens of Veblen goods—items that people desire because they are exclusive, expensive, or unique. Just as the peacock's tail serves as a signal of success and resources, marketing products and innovative features must demonstrate a brand's ability to invest in creating something truly remarkable.
The concept of proving one's worth through investment is not new. In the world of cryptocurrencies, miners compete to solve complex problems, demonstrating their investment of computational resources. This proof-of-work system ensures that only those willing to put in the effort and resources can reap the rewards. Similarly, creating unique, high-quality products and services serves as a form of proof-of-work for brands, showcasing their ability to invest resources in creating something valuable and distinct.
In the creative arts, the pressure to stand out is particularly intense, as generative AI has already demonstrated its ability to create impressive images and text. As AI tools like Adobe Firefly make it easier for anyone to generate content, the bar is being raised for artists and designers. To differentiate themselves, some pioneers are using AI to push the boundaries of what's possible and create truly unique works.
Digital artist Karen X Cheng is one such example, leveraging tools like Adobe Firefly to create art that goes beyond what is easily achievable with AI today. Her work serves as a proof-of-work, demonstrating her ability to invest time, skill, and creativity in producing something exceptional. Similarly, there are likely web designers right now who are connecting generative AI to webpages, pushing the boundaries of personalization and dynamic websites. These vanguard experiments, much like Cheng's innovative art, will one day become the norm as the technology evolves and becomes more accessible.
The Red Queen's Race: Staying Ahead in the AI Era
In Lewis Carroll's "Through the Looking-Glass," Alice and the Red Queen find themselves running as fast as they can, only to discover that they are staying in the same place. This scene serves as a powerful metaphor for the competitive pressures that drive evolution and innovation. Just as peacocks must continually evolve more impressive tails to win the approval of peahens, companies must constantly adapt and innovate to stay ahead in the marketplace.
"Well, in our country," said Alice, still panting a little, "you'd generally get to somewhere else—if you run very fast for a long time, as we've been doing."
"A slow sort of country!" said the Red Queen. "Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!"
In Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking-Glass, the Red Queen and Alice are constantly running but staying in place.
The introduction of AI into various industries is akin to the initial appearance of longer, more radiant tails in the peacock population. Companies that successfully leverage AI to improve efficiency and create more impressive products will have a competitive edge, much like the peacocks with the most attractive tails. However, as AI becomes more widespread and accessible, this advantage will be short-lived.
As more companies adopt AI, the playing field will level once again. The efficiency gains made possible by AI will be consumed by the pressure to stand out, just as the advantage of having a longer tail is eventually nullified when all peacocks possess the same trait. At this point, the selection pressure will shift to new areas, such as the ability to create even more personalized, dynamic, and engaging experiences using AI.
One thing is certain: it should be fun to watch how this space develops.
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