Now We Wait: Why Apple Waits While Rivals Rush to Market
Apple's playbook of waiting to perfect emerging technologies before launching polished products provides clues on how it could integrate AI like LLMs into its ecosystem.
The year was 1998, and Apple was struggling against the Wintel juggernaut, claiming a mere 4% market share at the time. During a summer conference that year, UCLA strategy professor and author Richard Rumelt crossed paths with Apple CEO Steve Jobs. Just three years prior, Jobs had returned to Apple after being ousted in 1985. Now, back at Apple's helm, Jobs had worked to pare down and revitalize the company's lackluster product line.
Rumelt, who had been tracking Jobs' moves, cornered the tech icon during the conference. He pressed Jobs on his long-term strategy for competing against the near-monopolistic Wintel alliance. Jobs' response was cryptic yet telling. As Rumelt recounts in his book Good Strategy Bad Strategy, Jobs simply smiled and said: "I am going to wait for the next big thing." At the time, Rumelt could hardly have realized just how prophetic those words would soon prove.
Jobs' Patience Pays Off: How the iPod Cracked the Music Market
Steve Jobs' patience was soon rewarded. In 2001, the iPod burst onto a portable music player scene already dotted with familiar names like Creative and Rio. But the first-to-market had failed to solve a fundamental riddle — how to deliver the ample song capacity music fans craved while retaining a slim, uncumbersome design. Bulkier players boasted hard drives that held libraries of tunes yet couldn't comfortably fit in a pocket. Meanwhile, smaller flash-based players were woefully limited in storage.
The iPod threaded the needle. Weighing just 6.5 ounces and "not much bigger than a pack of cards," it slid easily into a palm or jeans. But with its 5 to 10 GB hard drive, Apple promised the ability to carry "1,000 songs in your pocket"— a tagline that crystallized the product's singular blend of portability and capacity. The clickwheel interface enabled gliding through extensive playlists with buttery ease compared to the disjointed buttons of competitors. And seamless iTunes integration made building up gargantuan libraries effortless.
The Apple Playbook: Patience, Ecosystem, and Always Another Big Thing
The iPod's success established a formula that Apple has followed ever since: wait patiently for the ideal timing to enter a market, then leverage their ecosystem for advantage.
The Apple Watch exemplified this playbook. Debuting in 2015 against established smartwatch rivals like Samsung's Gear, the Watch threaded the needle on both fashion and function. And it built atop the iPhone's health data, app ecosystem, and synching continuity.
In headphones, a crowded market by 2016, Apple again found an opening. While competitors focused on noise cancellation, AirPods' wireless syncing, effortless pairing, and charging case influenced the entire category. Once more, Apple ecosystem ties like instant iPhone handoff proved a potent edge.
The common thread is patience paired with an ever-expanding ecosystem. Apple waits until a technology has matured enough to enable a standout product. Then, the bonds of its ecosystem reinforce switching costs and preferences.
This is fueled by Apple's unmatched resources. With nearly $170 billion in cash reserves, Apple can plunk down billions on custom silicon and bleeding-edge technology years before others. Take Face ID, based on research begun in 2012 but not debuted until 2017's iPhone X after Touch ID. Face ID relies on the True Depth camera system, which includes a front-facing infrared camera, dot projector, and flood illuminator.
An AI by Any Other Name: How Apple Could Sneak LLMs Into Your Life
As large language models grab headlines, some predict Apple will soon unleash its own LLM publicly. But that's unlikely. Apple's playbook is compelling user experience, not raw technology.
Apple products already harness substantial AI, including a 34-million parameter iOS transformer (that's M for million, not B for billion!) released in iOS 17 just for predictive text.
The real opportunity for Apple resides in what comes next. As LLM technology matures, Apple is poised to seamlessly integrate it into its ecosystem. Unparalleled access to users' intimate data, from photos to health to location, will allow Apple to personalize LLM-enabled features like no other. Custom silicon will securely run powerful models on-device.
Rather than a buzzy "Apple AI" launch, we'll see LLMs subtly woven into Apple's products. The playbook remains the same—wait for core technologies to fully ripen while expanding their walled garden. Then, transform innovations into magical consumer experiences enhanced by ecosystem ties.
Just as the iPod made digital music portable and personal, Apple's patience may again pay off. This time, by elevating LLMs from novelties into integral parts of our lives. And one day, we may view early entrants like ChatGPT as we do the Creative Jukebox - ambitious pioneers that showed us the future.